A “tipping point” in climate science refers to a critical threshold where small changes lead to significant, often irreversible impacts on the environment. As reported by the BBC, research shows six critical tipping points are “likely” to be crossed with current warming trend.

1. Greenland Ice Sheet collapse
2. West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse
3. Atlantic Ocean circulation disruption
4. Coral reef die-off
5. Permafrost thaw
6. Barents Sea ice loss

Unclear about the planetary impact these tipping points might have? Hear British journalist and BBC News Climate Editor, Justin Rowlatt, sharing how global warming may trigger irreversible changes to our planet, in BBC’s episodes, The Climate Tipping Points:

• The Arctic
• Ocean Circulation
• Cascading
• Antarctica
• Society

See Swedish scientist and joint director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, Johan Rockström, getting into all the details at the TED stage:

Get even deeper explanations from Tim Lenton, professor of Climate Change and Earth System Science at the University of Exeter:

Johan Rockström is a Swedish scientist, internationally recognized for his work on global sustainability issues. He is joint director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and chief scientist at Conservation International. See Johan explaining why this is the critical decade to work on Climate.

The Carbon Budget

There’s a limited amount of carbon we can put in the atmosphere before reaching the 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the threshold before human emissions significantly influence global temperatures. This is called, the carbon budget. At the current rate of emissions, the Global Carbon Budget team estimates a 50% chance global warming will exceed 1.5°C consistently in about six years.

What happens in the next 10 years will likely determine the state of the planet we hand over for future generations

Johan Rockström

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, enabling thousands of scientists and economists to work together to understand the challenge we have in front of us. On of the outcomes of their work is a study of 5 possible outcomes for the world in 2050 and beyond. Here’s an extremely summarized version of their findings:

Scenario #1 Very Low Emissions	Global CO₂ emissions are cut to net zero around 2050. This meets the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming (at most) 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures and then stabilizing around 1.4°C before 2100. Sustainable practices are adopted swiftly, shifting economic growth and investments. The effects of climate change are felt at a significantly lower intensity and rate than other scenarios.
Scenario #2 Low Emissions	Global CO₂ emissions are still critically lowered, but insufficient to reach net zero by 2050. Temperatures stabilize around 1.8°C higher by end of 2100.
Scenario #3 Intermediate Emissions	Progress towards sustainable practices is slow, similar to historic trends. CO₂ emissions stay at current levels. Net zero is not met by the end of the century. Temperatures rise by 2.7°C by 2100.
Scenario #4 High Emissions	Emissions and temperatures rise steadily, roughly doubling current levels. Countries shift toward competitiveness, more security, increased awareness of food supplies. Average temperatures have risen by 3.6°C by 2100.
Scenario #5 Very High Emissions	CO₂ emissions are doubled by 2050. Increased energy consumption and the exploitation of fossil fuels powers economic growth, but… The average global temperature rises 4.4°C by 2100.

Reflection

Even in the best case scenario (#1), extreme weather is more common, there will still be risks to health, 70 to 90% of the coral reef will be lost and there will likely be 69 million people at risk by sea level rise.

Sadly, we don’t seem to be on track to achieve scenario #1. Here’s a visual report from GlobalCarbonBudget.org, lead by University of Exeter with the support of more than 100 people from 70 organisations in 18 countries:

There is a time when panic is the appropriate response

Eugene Kleiner

Check scenarios data in: