The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, enabling thousands of scientists and economists to work together to understand the challenge we have in front of us. On of the outcomes of their work is a study of 5 possible outcomes for the world in 2050 and beyond. Here’s an extremely summarized version of their findings:

Scenario #1 Very Low Emissions	Global CO₂ emissions are cut to net zero around 2050. This meets the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming (at most) 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures and then stabilizing around 1.4°C before 2100. Sustainable practices are adopted swiftly, shifting economic growth and investments. The effects of climate change are felt at a significantly lower intensity and rate than other scenarios.
Scenario #2 Low Emissions	Global CO₂ emissions are still critically lowered, but insufficient to reach net zero by 2050. Temperatures stabilize around 1.8°C higher by end of 2100.
Scenario #3 Intermediate Emissions	Progress towards sustainable practices is slow, similar to historic trends. CO₂ emissions stay at current levels. Net zero is not met by the end of the century. Temperatures rise by 2.7°C by 2100.
Scenario #4 High Emissions	Emissions and temperatures rise steadily, roughly doubling current levels. Countries shift toward competitiveness, more security, increased awareness of food supplies. Average temperatures have risen by 3.6°C by 2100.
Scenario #5 Very High Emissions	CO₂ emissions are doubled by 2050. Increased energy consumption and the exploitation of fossil fuels powers economic growth, but… The average global temperature rises 4.4°C by 2100.

Reflection

Even in the best case scenario (#1), extreme weather is more common, there will still be risks to health, 70 to 90% of the coral reef will be lost and there will likely be 69 million people at risk by sea level rise.

Sadly, we don’t seem to be on track to achieve scenario #1. Here’s a visual report from GlobalCarbonBudget.org, lead by University of Exeter with the support of more than 100 people from 70 organisations in 18 countries:

There is a time when panic is the appropriate response

Eugene Kleiner

Check scenarios data in: